Hello Everyone,

It’s been a while since I’ve written a blog, as I’ve been busy working with PandemicPrep.Org since H1N1 broke out.  We’ve been making plans which I’ll share with you in a future blog.  We did hold a very successful Anti-viral Program and H1N1/H5N1 Update.  We had approx. 110 people and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  Thanks to Susan Cutler from Roche Laboratories for planning the event, and to Steven J. Lawrence from Washington University for being the keynote speaker.

The media hasn’t been reporting much about the H1N1 lately, but that doesn’t mean it has gone away.  The WHO on Saturday reported that there were 15,510 confirmed cases and 99 deaths.  We now have enough data to begin making a reasonable estimate of the Mortality Rate for what I’m calling the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza.

The CDC has developed a Severity Index similar to the one used for Hurricanes.  They allow us to label a pandemic based upon its mortality rates (MR) from Category 1 (MR less than .1%) to Category 5 (MR > 2.0%)

There have been three pandemics in the 20th Century, each with a corresponding Mortality Rate.

1918                       40-50 Million Deaths                          2-3% MR                Category 5
1957                      2 Million Deaths                                     .25% MR                Category 2  (see related article)
1968                      1 Million Deaths                                      >.1% MR                Category 2 (see related article)

By comparison, the Mortality Rates for the current H1N1 Influenza are as follows:

          Worldwide                    15,510 confirmed cases                 99 deaths             .638% MR    Category 3
          United States                 7,927 confirmed cases                 11 deaths             .139% MR     Category 2

The above facts mean that we could be in store for a Category 2 or Category 3 pandemic this fall, which could kill anywhere from 90,000 to 900,000 people in the United States alone, rather than the usual 36,000 per year that die of seasonal flu. 

It is possible that the H1N1 virus will mutate further, and that could change the mortality rate of the virus.  It is also possible that H1N1 could combine with H5N1 in some way, and that could significantly change the mortality rate for the worse, since H5N1 has a mortality rate of over 60%.

In any event, I’m predicting a bumpy ride this fall as flu season gets underway.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009 at 12:14 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.